TSMC To Fall Behind Both Intel, Samsung By 2024

seekingalpha.com, Nov. 30, 2020 – 

Summary

• TSMC is currently seen as the most advanced semiconductor company, a position it inherited from Intel due to latter's 3-year 10nm delay.
• However, a recent report indicates that TSMC will only move to gate-all-around (GAA) transistors in 2025.
• This will readily trail Samsung's 2022 as well as Intel's 2024 introduction of GAAFETs.
• This means TSMC could go from first to third within the next four years.

Overview

TSMC (TSM) is currently widely seen as the leader in semiconductor technology. However, this is not something it achieved by doing anything noteworthy: TSMC inherited this status from Intel (INTC) as the latter took five years to launch its first 10nm product, whereas Moore's Law calls for a two-year cadence. TSMC did nothing but continue to adhere to said cadence.

Indeed, in an article early this year (and that admittedly has become outdated since Intel announced its 7nm delay), I already noted that TSMC itself was not particularly moving fast, also falling behind the Moore's Law curve: TSMC was transitioning from 5nm (N5) to 3nm (N3) on a longer-than-usual 2.5-year cadence, while also increasing density by much less than the 2.0x Moore's Law calls for: for example, SRAM density will only improve by a meager 1.2x. (So at the time, I noted that this gave Intel an opportunity to catch up, but Intel subsequently delayed its 7nm, which previously was intended to allow Intel to move on quickly from its plagued 10nm node.)

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