eetasia.com, Dec. 12, 2024 –
While the overall economic situation did not significantly improve in the third quarter of 2024, factors such as supply chain stocking driven by new smartphone and PC/notebook launches in the second half of the year, coupled with continued strong demand for AI server-related high-performance computing (HPC), led to an improvement in overall wafer foundry capacity utilization compared to the second quarter, according to TrendForce.
In the third quarter, the total revenue of the world's top 10 wafer foundries increased by 9.1% quarter-on-quarter (QoQ)–reaching $34.9 billion. Part of this growth was attributed to the substantial contributions from the high-priced 3 nm process, breaking the record set during the pandemic.
Looking ahead to the fourth quarter of 2024, TrendForce predicts that advanced processes will continue to drive the revenue of the top 10 foundries, though the QoQ growth rate is expected to narrow slightly. Operational performance is anticipated to be polarized: AI and flagship smartphone/PC main chips are expected to sustain demand for 5/4nm and 3nm processes through the end of the year. CoWoS advanced packaging will continue to face supply shortages.
For mature processes at 28nm and above, uncertain end-market sales, the approach of the traditional first-quarter sales lull in 2025, and a significant decline in stocking demand for peripheral ICs such as TV SoCs, LDDIs, and panel-related PMICs following inventory build-ups in the third quarter of 2024 are expected to weigh on demand.
However, these negative factors are likely to be offset by year-end shipment surges from Chinese smartphone brands and urgent orders driven by China's old-for-new replacement subsidies, which are stimulating supply chain activity. Consequently, mature process capacity utilization in the fourth quarter is projected to remain flat or see slight growth compared to the previous quarter.