As the NISQ era winds down, three experts assess the progress toward a viable market for quantum computing.
eetimes.eu, Apr. 22, 2024 –
John Preskill coined the term "noisy intermediate-scale quantum" (NISQ) in a 2018 presentation on quantum computing. One wonders whether the Caltech physicist realized at the time how extensively the phrase would be used to define one of the most critical steps in science and physics this decade. Preskill told his audience that quantum computers with 50 to 100 qubits would likely be possible within four years, but the limited control over those qubits–the "noisy" aspect of NISQ–would severely restrict the usefulness of NISQ-era quantum computers.
Fast-forward to a December presentation at Q2B Silicon Valley in which Preskill wondered whether the NISQ era was coming to an end, based on his belief that no proposed application for NISQ computing with commercial value had yet emerged and that no applications that do not require error-correction codes would be found.
To find out where we are on the journey from NISQ to fault-tolerant quantum computing, EE Times Europe interviewed experts from Bloc Ventures, Fraunhofer and the Institute of Quantum Control.
Navigating the roadmap, following the money
Globally, the quantum scene is a hotbed of innovation–so much so that it's difficult to understand exactly where we are and which use cases might flourish. There are many applications for quantum technologies, ranging from quantum computing to sensors, imaging, clocks and radio-frequency design.
"When you look at 2022, there was such a lot of hype around quantum that there were a lot of investors piling in," said David Pollington, head of research at deep-tech investor Bloc Ventures (London). "There was a lot of anticipation about what quantum might be able to do in terms of computing power. Interestingly, since generative AI exploded at the end of 2022 into early 2023, much of the hype was more around AI. However, more investment dollars were going into quantum than into things like autonomous vehicles and AI."
Pollington believes most people view quantum technologies as transformative at some stage in the future–more a question of when than if. "People have started to understand quantum mechanics and quantum effects and apply them to business problems," suggesting there are good market opportunities for quantum, he said. Pollington pointed to the use of quantum simulators on classical computers for business problems to demonstrate quantum's capabilities and its ability to accelerate problem-solving.